ROBERT HAYWARD Why cancelling elections won’t get Starmer off the hook & how it could actually make things WORSE for him
May’s local elections will be much more important and unpredictable than any round of mid-term elections for many years
BRITISH politics is facing a situation it has never been in before.
For the first time, a whole host of parties are genuinely vying for votes across the political spectrum.
It is why May’s local elections are going to be a huge moment.
They will be much more important and unpredictable than any round of mid-term elections for many years.
In England, we have Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, Reform UK and the Greens all in the game.
In some areas, the pro-Gaza independents could squeeze Labour.
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Candidates will be able to win on a much smaller percentage of the vote, in a way we have never seen.
Multi-member wards could be represented by up to three different parties.
And this crucial set of elections could decide the fate of Sir Keir Starmer.
There are still four months to go, but already there is underground warfare in the Labour Party and tensions over his leadership.
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Plots and briefings against the Prime Minister will almost certainly continue until the local elections on May 7.
Facing anger
After which, the Labour Party could burst into open warfare the following morning.
May 8 might well mark the start of Labour’s Long Summer Of Discontent.
The party is already facing anger over plans to delay elections in some areas due to Labour’s overhaul of local government.
Opposition parties have accused it of a stitch-up to stem the tide of losses in Labour strongholds.
We will find out at the end of January which councils face these delays.
But cancelling elections will not get Sir Keir off the hook. It may actually make things worse for him.
When you have an impartial body such as the Electoral Commission criticising the decision, it is damaging for the Government.
The party is already facing anger over plans to delay elections in some areas due to Labour’s overhaul of local government
And when Labour-run authorities put their hands up and say they do not want elections, this will be very embarrassing.
Places such as Labour-controlled Blackburn and Preston have already indicated they do not want elections.
The Conservative Party has nationally complained about election cancellations but, in some areas, such as Sussex, local Tories have said they would be happy with a delay.
Labour is being accused of being undemocratic and this will be a running sore throughout the campaign.
At the end of this month, we will discover whether elections will happen in other areas, too, including Essex and Norfolk.
Delays there will hurt Reform by preventing gains, and may reduce Tory losses.
Labour is being accused of being undemocratic and this will be a running sore throughout the campaign
What we do know for certain is that the London boroughs and the big metropolitan authorities such as Leeds, Birmingham and Newcastle will hold elections.
And these are the areas where Labour is at most risk.
It is far too early to make predictions about the results of these elections.
But Sir Keir will also be judged on how badly Labour does in Scotland and Wales.
If the SNP does very well at Holyrood, it will push for another Scottish independence referendum.
Plaid Cymru could be leading local governments in Wales.
Reform UK is still clearly ahead in the polls — there is no question of that. Although they have weakened somewhat
The Greens and Lib Dems could be forming administrations in what are currently London Labour bastions, such as Sir Keir’s backyard of Camden and Jeremy Corbyn’s home of Islington.
Labour also faces a squeeze from pro-Gaza independents in areas such as Redbridge in North East London, part of which is represented by Health Secretary Wes Streeting, plus Newham in East London, and in West Yorkshire.
Reform UK is still clearly ahead in the polls — there is no question of that.
Although they have weakened somewhat.
To what extent they weaken or grow between now and May depends in part on whether immigration resuscitates as the main issue, or does the economy continue to dominate?
Nigel Farage is planning to target London’s outer ring — known as the doughnut — which was traditionally Tory.
It makes sense because Reform has been much more successful at picking up Tory votes than Labour ones.
Even though Reform-run Kent has been blighted by sackings and infighting, the party will target the neighbouring Tory-run London boroughs of Bexley and Bromley.
But Mr Farage is being shrewd by diverting attention away from Kent and making this a fight about London Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan.
While Reform will be starting from almost zero in many places and can expect substantial gains, they may now have to explain what they have achieved in areas like Kent, Staffordshire and Cornwall.
Miracle results
Meanwhile, the Conservatives will lose many seats in some places, no question, depending on whether elections are postponed or not.
But Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is far less under the spotlight than she was only a few months ago.
There is a sense that she’s had a good few months — she’s established herself as an effective leader of the Opposition.
An improvement in the Conservative Party’s ratings has eased the pressure on her leadership for now, although that may not last.
A small further rise in the polls will give the Tories a chance of gains in London boroughs such as Westminster, Barnet and Wandsworth, which could offset substantial troubles in the shires due to both Reform and the Lib Dems.
After the uncertainty of these elections, many will be desperately trying to work out what this could mean for a General Election.
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But I would remind everyone that in 2021, Boris Johnson had a miracle set of election results on the back of a vaccine bounce.
He was no longer Prime Minister a year later.
