Electoral Calculus – one of the most accurate forecasters out there – predicts Reform UK is set for an outright Commons majority come the next general election, slated for 2029. True, politics is a marathon, not a sprint – and much can change in 4 years – but Nigel Farage’s party is currently predicted to win 362 MPs on just over 30% of the vote.

By contrast, Labour – which won a whopping 412 seats in 2024 – would drop to 136 seats. Meanwhile, the Tories would fall into fifth place nationally with a mere 22 MPs. On the one hand, Reform’s opinion poll surge shows no sign of reversing. On the other, conditions could change radically. Under-fire Tory leader Kemi Badenoch could be elbowed out. A new Tory leader may well fail to deliver but could they do any worse?

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‘Race to the bottom!’ Kemi Badenoch in fiery attack on Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage

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Nigel Farage demands total Labour U-turn to reverse winter fuel cut in full

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Polling guru John Curtice predicts nightmare for Keir Starmer as Reform tops polls

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Bombshell new poll predicts Nigel Farage on course to win next general election

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Nigel Farage plans to bring stars of business, TV and sports into his Cabinet as PM

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Reform wins two by-elections in fresh blow to Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch

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Buoyant Nigel Farage issues six word plea to help him become PM

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New Reform MP blasts ‘rattled’ Keir Starmer after Nigel Farage rant

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Bringing back ‘Big Dog’ Boris Johnson would be a disaster for the Conservative Party

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Nigel Farage to issue huge challenge to Keir Starmer in major speech

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Nigel Farage warns ‘it’s over’ as new map shows Tories with just 10 seats in Commons

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Andrew Neil brutally tears apart Keir Starmer over Nigel Farage speech

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I was in the room for Keir Starmer’s Farage-bashing speech – PM is taking one massive risk

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Labour is the enemy of the working class – and Farage has just exposed that

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Nigel Farage is ready to splash the cash – unfortunately, it’s your money he’ll need

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Nigel Farage takes savage swipe at Kemi Badenoch with three-word warning

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Reform MP calls for burqa ban in PMQs bombshell as Keir Starmer left stunned

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I live in the Red Wall – and voters won’t forgive Nigel Farage’s latest move

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Nigel Farage delivers new blow to Labour and Tories ahead of crunch Scottish by-election

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Keir Starmer goes ‘from bad to worse’ as voters unimpressed by winter fuel U-turn

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‘Race to the bottom!’ Kemi Badenoch in fiery attack on Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage

Comments

Nigel Farage demands total Labour U-turn to reverse winter fuel cut in full

Comments

Polling guru John Curtice predicts nightmare for Keir Starmer as Reform tops polls

Comments

Bombshell new poll predicts Nigel Farage on course to win next general election

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Nigel Farage plans to bring stars of business, TV and sports into his Cabinet as PM

Comments

Reform wins two by-elections in fresh blow to Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch

Comments

Buoyant Nigel Farage issues six word plea to help him become PM

Comments

New Reform MP blasts ‘rattled’ Keir Starmer after Nigel Farage rant

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Bringing back ‘Big Dog’ Boris Johnson would be a disaster for the Conservative Party

Comments

Nigel Farage to issue huge challenge to Keir Starmer in major speech

Comments

Nigel Farage warns ‘it’s over’ as new map shows Tories with just 10 seats in Commons

Comments

Andrew Neil brutally tears apart Keir Starmer over Nigel Farage speech

Comments

I was in the room for Keir Starmer’s Farage-bashing speech – PM is taking one massive risk

Comments

Labour is the enemy of the working class – and Farage has just exposed that

Comments

Nigel Farage is ready to splash the cash – unfortunately, it’s your money he’ll need

Comments

Nigel Farage takes savage swipe at Kemi Badenoch with three-word warning

Comments

Reform MP calls for burqa ban in PMQs bombshell as Keir Starmer left stunned

Comments

I live in the Red Wall – and voters won’t forgive Nigel Farage’s latest move

Comments

Nigel Farage delivers new blow to Labour and Tories ahead of crunch Scottish by-election

Comments

Keir Starmer goes ‘from bad to worse’ as voters unimpressed by winter fuel U-turn

Comments

‘Race to the bottom!’ Kemi Badenoch in fiery attack on Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage

Comments

Nigel Farage demands total Labour U-turn to reverse winter fuel cut in full

Comments

Polling guru John Curtice predicts nightmare for Keir Starmer as Reform tops polls

Comments

Bombshell new poll predicts Nigel Farage on course to win next general election

Comments

Nigel Farage plans to bring stars of business, TV and sports into his Cabinet as PM

Comments

Reform wins two by-elections in fresh blow to Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch

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Buoyant Nigel Farage issues six word plea to help him become PM

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Sir Keir Starmer could also claw back some points as the PM looks to steal a march on Reform. Don’t discount the possibility meanwhile of global conditions turning in Labour’s favour. Voters might be reluctant to change governments during a global war, such as a conflict over Taiwan, a very real possibility in the next few years.

Incumbency advantage helped the Canadian Liberals after the Trump tariffs, just when Canada’s Conservative Party looked set to win. Labour could likewise steal victory from the jaws of defeat. Reform could also fail to deliver at a local level. Its DOGE policy to save money could backfire, undermining the insurgent party’s credibility. More infighting won’t help either.

Still, these risks notwithstanding Reform benefits from the disaster of the current Labour government and the calamity of the previous Conservative one. Right now, Reform’s worst-case scenario seems to be coming first in the next election but needing the Tories as a minority partner to rule in coalition. That still has Farage as PM and the Tories as the support act.

Perhaps Farage’s biggest challenge will be holding together a coalition of Thatcher-sympathising ex-Tories and working-class Red Wallers keen on government getting stuff done. A taste of this contradiction was exposed by the recent pledge to lift the two-child benefit cap. A vote winner on the road to Wigan Pier. Less appealing to the stockbroker belt.

Still, both sides of this coalition are united by disdain for mainstream politics, mass immigration, tolerance for crime, the perceived abuse of human rights laws, and the “woke” agenda. Reform is not so much redefining UK politics as adapting to a new marketplace while occupying a new space beyond traditional ideas of Left and Right.

For now, Reform’s growing base will forgive a lack of detailed policy so long as they like the vibes. But as 2029 draws near, Farage and co need more meat on the bone and a team ready for government. That is why Reform’s future record in local government will be critical. It will be all voters have to judge when it comes to the party’s fitness to govern.

Still, Reform has topped every opinion poll since mid-April, smashed the May 1 elections, and won the Runcorn by-election from Labour. This does feel like an epochal change. To keep the momentum up however requires running a tight ship, ongoing professionalisation, more policy meat on the bones, and the building up of a decent record in local government. But the next election still looks like Reform’s to lose.