
It is remarkable that Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer have decided to go into battle over who can spend the most money on welfare. The two men want to splash around taxpayers’ cash on paying parents to have as many children as they want. Reform’s leader is positioning himself as tough on illegal migration and generous on state handouts to mop up disgruntled voters from both sides of the political divide.
The Prime Minister, meanwhile, is already so weak despite a landslide majority that he is on the verge of bowing to demands for a bigger state from his restive backbenchers. It absolutely suits the two men to squeeze Kemi Badenoch out of the political fray completely, with both insisting Reform is the real opposition.

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But the Tories now have a huge opportunity to begin turning around their pretty dismal fortunes, if they finally realise it is time to stop thinking and start doing. In the Red Wall, the well-heeled Shires and everywhere in between are the aspirational classes who believe in hard work, personal responsibility and freedom.
Farage wants to scrap the two-child benefit cap at an estimated cost of £3.5bn and Starmer is on the verge of actually doing it. If the Government does reverse the policy it will inevitably lead to tax hikes. The cap, introduced by the Conservatives, is popular with voters because it absolutely encapsulates the great sense of British fairness.
Supporting families, particularly when children are very young and parents are most likely to be struggling financially, is a good position for a civilised country to take. But it is not fair to expect parents who limit the size of their family because of their financial situation to fund those who chose to have three, four, five or more children.
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Labour and the Conservatives will never be able to speak in the same way as Farage on immigration. He was talking about the issue long before everyone else and voters trust him on it. But suddenly positioning himself as the champion of nationalisation and welfare support is a strategic change of direction that opens up a chance for the Tories to set themselves apart.
Every voter who puts themselves through long commutes, early starts, late finishes, high-stress deadlines or gruelling manual labour to build a good life for themselves is now up for grabs. All of those people who believe the welfare state as a safety net is a noble concept but letting adults languish on benefits is not, are now in play.
But pointing the finger at Farage and shouting “he’s left-wing” won’t cut it. Few care anymore about traditional left/right class boundaries as Boris Johnson’s 2019 victory shows along with the rise of the Greens and Lib Dems in the wealthiest parts of the south.
There are plenty of chin-stroking types who insist politics is about policy and the rest is frivolous. They are wrong. Politics is about personality. Do you believe the person in front of you is on your side? Do you believe that when events beyond their control – pandemics, wars, global economic woes – happen their instincts are in the right place?
Can they be trusted to make the correct decision when policy wonks in the Treasury whisper “Chancellor, look at this spreadsheet, why don’t you get rid of the winter fuel allowance…” Politics is also about passion. Who wants it more?
So the Conservatives need to take advantage of the dividing line Farage has drawn to start their fightback. A good place to begin would be by wooing Reform-curious donors who will now worry about the size of the state and the accompanying tax burden the insurgent’s party’s new direction could lead to.
Some extra cash would fund the recruitment of some bright young things who know how to communicate on social media. Letting the biggest personalities and best communicators speak fluent human instead of forcing robotic “lines to take” on them would shake up the debate.
Robert Jernick is showing the value of just cracking on. He has brought energy and creativity to tackling the justice brief. Morale is always crucial in political parties – Reform is high on it at the moment – but never more so than after a defeat. New Tory MPs are downbeat and that must be tackled quickly.
Voters may not be ready to give the Conservatives another chance yet, but they definitely never will if the party spends too long licking its wounds
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