PM Sir Keir Starmer may have a spring in his step on Friday. Latest data revealed net migration to the UK halved between December 2023 and December 2024. The fall – from 860,000 to 431,000 – has been driven by the declining number of people coming to work and study in the UK.

Now you may notice something wrong with Labour taking credit for this. Over half that period was in the dying days of Tory rule, while the final five months would have been too early for Labour policies to have kicked in. Will that stop Labour taking credit? Will it heck. And while the Tories will attempt a victory lap, not only will their voices likely be drowned out but the Conservative’s credibility on border control was shot to pieces during record post-Covid migration.

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The bigger question for Reform UK – still way ahead in national polls – is will this news derail the rise of Nigel Farage’s party. Given Reform is more trusted on immigration than the other parties, and given that Labour’s track record on this issue is as bad as the Tories, chances are Reform remains unscathed.

Nonetheless, Labour is clearly signalling its intent to take votes away from Reform. Note tougher immigration policies and the watering down of environmental pledges.

Yet such a strategy carries big risk for Sir Keir, as his party bleeds votes to the Greens and Lib Dems as well. Pivot too much to the Right, and yet more of these Left-wing voters could switch teams. Perhaps this is what the water fuel cut U-turn was all about.

Still, Farage needs to be wary also. Labour is likely in power for at least another four years, during which time anything could happen. As the party of government, yes Labour will get the flack when things go sour, but it can also take the credit when things go well.

Reform remains untested, notwithstanding the fact Farage’s party now controls several councils and budgets. Farage knows the pressure is on to deliver locally and that Reform’s critics will pounce on any slip-up.

For under-fire Tory leader Kemi Badenoch meanwhile, the migration fall should be advantageous. That assumes however her voice gets heard, or that voters think this washes away the stench of failure when it comes to the Tories and border control.

Ultimately this news will likely not move the dial too much. Ironically though, Reform pressure could catalyse more Right-wing policies from Labour, thereby weakening the case for Farage’s party even if it alienates many on the Labour backbenches.