Blind panic must be ensuing in Labour HQ. First immigration policy tightens up, then climate goals are watered down. Now – with the Reform UK threat growing – Sir Keir Starmer this week said he will look to make more pensioners eligible for the winter fuel payment, which had recently been cut, much to the anger of his backbenchers.

Why though did the PM blink? Likely crushing losses in May’s local elections were a huge push alongside consternation by Labour MPs. At first glance the reversal looks designed to appease the Labour Left but the Reform-sympathising Red Wall was also strongly opposed to winter fuel cuts at a time when migrant benefits are perceived to be too high.

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Keir Starmer is playing right into Nigel Farage’s hands

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Nigel Farge vows to reinstate winter fuel allowance and scrap two child benefit cap

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The battle to succeed Sir Keir Starmer has already started

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Kemi Badenoch vows to continue fight for pensioners after Keir Starmer’s U-turn

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That said, Labour is also in danger of bleeding votes to the Greens and Lib Dems which, alongside losses to Reform, could have also twisted Sir Keir’s arm to walk this back.

The Reform threat meanwhile is seemingly causing frictions in the Cabinet. The Telegraph this week revealed that Deputy PM Angela Rayner urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to consider restricting access to the state pension for recently arrived immigrants.

This suggestion surely has an eye on the Nigel Farage threat. How else do we also explain Sir Keir looking to cut migration to avoid “an island of strangers”, while ending the UK’s “failed experiment in open borders”?

Labour seems to have an internal tug of war between economics and politics, between its Left and Right, and over whether to win back voters from Reform, or the Lib Dems and Greens.

Like the Tories, Labour’s broad church is starting to unravel, while the danger for Sir Keir is he starts to look like a man who blinks under pressure. That sets a dangerous precedent for the PM, one his party rivals could seek to exploit.

Reform has been ahead in the polls for a month already. But while Labour is threatened by Farage, the risks are nothing compared to those posed to the Tories.

Now in fourth place according to YouGov, the Tories are heading for the political wilderness while Labour at least has roughly four years in government to try and turn things around.

Make no mistake, the winter fuel backtrack is a huge deal, especially when coupled with recently announcements on migration and the environment. Labour is threatened by voters shifting to parties of both the Left and the Right.

Reform UK however poses the biggest risk to Labour, with the Red Wall turning turquoise, alongside coastal communities feeling betrayed by Labour’s fishing deal in the new EU trade agreement. It might not be game over for Sir Keir but the storm clouds are surely gathering.