Reform UK are on the brink of gaining a sixth MP as an “inevitable” by-election in Runcorn & Helsby could see Nigel Farage’s party take the constituency.

Following the disgraced Labour MP Mike Amesbury being slapped with a 10 week prison sentence for brutally attacking a man in the street, top pollster Luke Tryl warns that Reform is on track to take the Labour seat.

Mr Tryl, the director of More in Common, told GB News: “The dynamics of the now inevitable by-election – low turnout, national Government unpopular, disgraced former MP and Reform already second – mean, despite the big Labour majority, Reform would be disappointed not to win given their current polling/momentum.”

The Runcorn and Helsby MP is now under pressure to resign from the Commons, which would trigger a by-election that Nigel Farage and his party hopes to win.

In the 2024 General Election, Reform UK came second to Amesbury, with 7,662 votes, holding 18.1% of the vote share as the Conservatives fell behind with 6,756 votes.

If Amesbury refuses to quit voluntarily, a by-election can be forced if 10% of voters in his constituency sign a petition demanding one.

The Labour MP pleaded guilty at a hearing in January to assaulting 45-year-old Paul Fellows in Main Street, Frodsham, Cheshire, in the early hours of October 26.

Deputy Chief Magistrate Tan Ikram said today that his actions were caused by “anger and loss of emotional control”.

A court was told Amesbury had been drinking before he arrived at a taxi rank, where Mr Fellows approached him to remonstrate about a bridge closure in the town.

Mr Fellows said the MP took a step towards him and punched him in the face, prosecutor Alison Storey told the hearing.

The court was told Amesbury shouted at Mr Fellows, saying: “Don’t you ever threaten me again. You won’t threaten the MP ever again will you?”

Reform UK are now calling for Amesbury to resign. The party Chairman, Zia Yusuf said: “Today Mike Amesbury has been sentenced to 10 weeks in prison.

“The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place.

“We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately so a by-election can be held.”

The Labour Party has said the constituency deserves a new MP after Amesbury’s sentencing.

A Labour spokesman said: “The Labour Party took swift action following Mike Amesbury’s completely unacceptable actions and he is no longer a Labour MP or a member of the Labour Party.

“It is right that Mr Amesbury pleaded guilty and has now been sentenced. Local residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserve in the future with a new Labour MP.”